The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.
Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning.
The analysis of the polls of each polling organization and the associated bias is illustrated in a line chart. The most recent poll results are displayed separately and a graphic representation of the amount the poll leans either left or right is shown.
The graphs below cover the last three presidential elections and show the LongRoom Polling Analysis of polls for those elections. In all cases, the LongRoom Analysis was accurate to within +/- 0.3%.
References for the voting data from each state are included below in the list of sources.
What have we learned from the 2016 election?
That data matters, and opinions don't.
Many in the media, and those who follow them, were surprised, or even confounded, with the results of the 2016 Election. However, for all of our loyal members here on LongRoom, the data consistently reflected the actual status of the election throughout the campaign.
In the final LongRoom national poll analysis, Donald Trump was ahead by 1.3%.
LongRoom also tracked and analyzed the heavily contested states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada. For each state our analysis was within +/- 0.3% of actual results.
For the heavily contested states that LongRoom tracked and analyzed, Donald Trump led by an average of 1.0%, which was within 0.3% of the national average which the LongRoom analysis calculated.
Based on this confirmation, LongRoom was able to predict with over a 95% certainty that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States of America, with more than 270 Electoral Votes.