LongRoom Unbiased - Methodology

The LongRoom Polling Analysis uses the latest voting data from each state's Secretary of State or Election Division. The voting data is kept current by incorporating the latest updates from each state as they become available. This means that the LongRoom Polling Analysis accurately reflects the actual voting demographics, precinct by precinct, county by county, and state by state.

Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning.

The analysis of the polls of each polling organization and the associated bias is illustrated in a line chart. The most recent poll results are displayed separately and a graphic representation of the amount the poll leans either left or right is shown.

The graphs below cover the last three presidential elections and show the LongRoom Polling Analysis of polls for those elections. In all cases, the LongRoom Analysis was accurate to within +/- 0.3%.

References for the voting data from each state are included below in the list of sources.

Analysis Of Election 2016

What have we learned from the 2016 election?

That data matters, and opinions don't.

Many in the media, and those who follow them, were surprised, or even confounded, with the results of the 2016 Election. However, for all of our loyal members here on LongRoom, the data consistently reflected the actual status of the election throughout the campaign.

In the final LongRoom national poll analysis, Donald Trump was ahead by 1.3%.

LongRoom also tracked and analyzed the heavily contested states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada. For each state our analysis was within +/- 0.3% of actual results.

For the heavily contested states that LongRoom tracked and analyzed, Donald Trump led by an average of 1.0%, which was within 0.3% of the national average which the LongRoom analysis calculated.

Based on this confirmation, LongRoom was able to predict with over a 95% certainty that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States of America, with more than 270 Electoral Votes.



References


  1. Alabama http://www.alabamavotes.gov http://www.alabamavotes.gov/ElectionInfo.aspx?a=voters
  2. Alaska http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/vi_vrs_stats_party_2015.04.03.htm
  3. Arizona http://www.azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data
  4. Arkansas http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/Pages/default.aspx
  5. California http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/
  6. Colorado http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/VoterRegNumbers.html
  7. Connecticut http://www.sots.ct.gov/sots/lib/sots/electionservices/registration_and_enrollment_stats/nov15re.pdf
  8. Delaware http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
  9. Florida http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-monthly-reports/voter-registration-current-by-county/
  10. Georgia http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterhistory.do
  11. Hawaii http://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/ http://elections.hawaii.gov/resources/registration-voter-turnout-statistics/
  12. Idaho http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/
  13. Illinois https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionInformation/DownloadVoteTotals.aspx
  14. Indiana http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/ http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/2393.htm
  15. Iowa https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/county.html#2016
  16. Kansas http://www.kssos.org/elections/elections_registration_voterreg.asp
  17. Kentucky http://elect.ky.gov/statistics/pages/registrationstatistics.aspx
  18. Louisiana http://www.sos.la.gov/ElectionsAndVoting/Pages/RegistrationStatisticsStatewide.aspx
  19. Maine http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/data/index.html
  20. Maryland http://www.elections.state.md.us/voter_registration/stats.html
  21. Massachusetts http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleenrollmentstats/enrollmentstats.htm
  22. Michigan http://www.michigan.gov/sos/1,1607,7-127-1633---,00.html
  23. Minnesota http://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/ http://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/registered-voter-list-requests/
  24. Mississippi http://www.sos.ms.gov/elections-voting/pages/voter-registration-information.aspx
  25. Missouri http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/s_default/results
  1. Montana http://sos.mt.gov/elections/index.asp
  2. Nebraska http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/
  3. Nevada https://www.nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1544
  4. New Hampshire http://sos.nh.gov/Elections.aspx
  5. New Jersey http://www.njelections.org/election-information-archive-2016.html
  6. New Mexico http://www.sos.state.nm.us/Elections_Data/2016-voter-registration-data-1.aspx http://www.sos.state.nm.us/uploads/FileLinks/c2426e22e02d478ca940282b232f0647/STATEWIDE_JAN_29_2016.PDF
  7. New York http://www.elections.ny.gov/EnrollmentCounty.html
  8. North Carolina http://www.ncsbe.gov/ http://enr.ncsbe.gov/
  9. North Dakota https://vip.sos.nd.gov/PortalList.aspx https://vip.sos.nd.gov/pdfs/portals/votereg.pdf
  10. Ohio http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections.aspx
  11. Oklahoma https://www.ok.gov/elections/Voter_Info/Voter_Registration_Statistics/
  12. Oregon http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/electionsstatistics.aspx#2016
  13. Pennsylvania http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725
  14. Rhode Island http://sos.ri.gov/divisions/elections
  15. South Carolina http://www.scvotes.org/statistics
  16. South Dakota https://sdsos.gov/elections-voting/upcoming-elections/voter-registration-totals/voter-registration-comparison-table.aspx
  17. Tennessee http://sos.tn.gov/elections/election-information
  18. Texas http://www.sos.state.tx.us/
  19. Utah https://elections.utah.gov/election-resources
  20. Vermont https://www.sec.state.vt.us
  21. Virginia http://elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/registration-statistics/2016-registration-statistics/index.html
  22. Washington https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/
  23. West Virginia http://www.sos.wv.gov/elections/history/Pages/Voter_Registration.aspx
  24. Wisconsin http://www.gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics
  25. Wyoming http://soswy.state.wy.us/Elections/Docs/VRStats/2016/16JanVR_Stats.pdf