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The election season got started this past Tuesday in Texas, and the primary results are being analyzed for clues about what they mean for November.
The results confirmed that the Democratic enthusiasm is real, but it's probably not strong enough to turn Texas blue. The number of votes cast in Democratic primaries nearly doubled those from four years ago. However, the 1,037,779 Democratic voters fell half a million short of the GOP's 1,543,674 votes. Primary votes don't translate directly into general election results, but there's nothing in the data to suggest a big blue wave sweeping over Texas.
America - Texas - Enthusiasm - Display - Texas
However, not all of America is like Texas. The Democratic enthusiasm on display in Texas could easily be enough to give Democrats control of Congress and make Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House. Texas results confirmed the conventional wisdom that millions of Democrats can't wait to express their displeasure with President Donald Trump at the polls.
The question, though, is how excited Republicans are to defend their president and his agenda. His most enthusiastic supporters will be there, but what about the more reluctant Trump voters?
President - Victory - Votes - People - Job
In 2016, the president was propelled to victory with the votes of people who didn't think he was qualified for the job. Ten percent of all voters cast their ballot for him despite this enormous reservation. Why did they do so? Partly because they also thought his opponent was unqualified. In other words, Trump was the lesser of two evils.
Today, many of these voters probably disapprove of the president. They don't like the...
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