All of our national elections are important, but there is always a special significance to the last midterm elections before the congressional and state-legislative redistricting processes take place. Democrats had a very unpleasant experience for much of the past decade after their thumping in 2010, the last midterm election before the current lines were drawn. For Democrats, it was the defeat that kept on defeating.
For the uninitiated, the decennial national Census is conducted in years ending with a zero, with states redrawing the congressional and state-legislative lines the following year. In all but a few states, it is a process conducted by the state legislatures themselves, with governors usually playing a direct or indirect role. So party control of state government is crucial everywhere save Arizona, California, and Iowa, the states with nonpartisan redistricting processes. Thirty-four states hold their governor races only in the midterm election cycle, and state legislative races are similarly loaded up in midterm years—this year, 82 percent of all state legislative seats will be on the ballot.
Year - Exposure - Republicans - Governorships - Democrats
This year, the exposure is hardly symmetrical. Republicans have 26 governorships up, Democrats just nine (plus one independent); the GOP has 13 open governorships, Democrats just four; and Republicans have nine governorships that appear to be competitive, Democrats just four. The GOP has control of both legislative chambers in 25 states (plus Nebraska’s unicameral legislature), Democrats just seven, while 17 are divided. The GOP majorities in the U.S. House and Senate are also in doubt, so let’s just say that the Republican Party has a lot on the line this year.
Republican hopes these days rest on two things. First, their deficit on the generic congressional ballot seems to have declined from 13 points in late December to about 5 points now, according to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls. It’s plausible...
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