Climate bet 10 years on: What became of Mr. Gore’s ‘tipping point’?

Climate Depot | 2/6/2018 | Marc Morano
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Climate bet 10 years on: What became of Mr. Gore’s “tipping point”?

In 2007, University of Pennsylvania Professor J. Scott Armstrong challenged former U.S. Vice President Albert Gore to a bet on what would happen to global average temperatures over the following 10 years. Professor Armstrong’s challenge was in response to Mr. Gore’s warning of a looming dangerous “tipping point” in global mean temperatures. His proposal of a $10,000 bet was intended to draw attention to the need to assess the predictive validity of climate forecasts in an objective manner. Professor Armstrong issued his challenge based on the knowledge that predictions of dangerous global warming were the product of methods that violated 72 of 89 forecasting principles relevant to the forecasting problem.

Emails - Mr - Gore - Attempts - Engagement

Emails to Mr. Gore were unproductive: after several attempts at engagement, his staff informed Professor Armstrong that Mr. Gore did not take bets. The important question of whether public policies should be based on the alarming projections remained, so Professor Armstrong commissioned site to track how the bet would have turned out had Mr. Gore accepted.

At the time of the challenge, Mr. Gore warned that the climate was warming at such a rate that, without immediate action, disasters would occur. His book Assault on Reason—published in April 2007—stated that: “Many scientists are now warning that we are moving closer to several ‘tipping points’ that could – within as little as ten years – make it impossible for us to avoid irretrievable damage of the planet’s habitability for human civilization.”

Mr - Gore - Warning - Forecast - UN

Mr. Gore’s warning was not directly testable: he failed to provide a quantitative forecast. The 2001 U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report’s “business as usual” projection of 3°C per-century was used to stand for Mr. Gore’s forecast. Adopting the IPCC projection favored Mr. Gore, as it was...
(Excerpt) Read more at: Climate Depot
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