BENGALURU (Reuters) – A significant global upturn will remain elusive this year as many economies still face an array of daunting risks, despite improved sentiment from an initial U.S.-China trade deal and ebullience in financial markets, Reuters polls showed.
The global economy in 2019 may have been near its weakest since the financial crisis thanks to trade protectionism and political uncertainty, but world stocks had a blowout year with several indexes repeatedly setting record highs.
Policy - Banks - Split - Markets - Events
With easy policy from central banks set to continue, that split between markets and events on the ground may extend into this year, according to surveys of over 500 economists covering 46 major economies conducted Jan. 10-22.
When asked what is more likely for developed and emerging market economies this year, more than three-quarters of nearly 400 economists said “about the same as last year”, in terms of growth rates.
World - Growth - Trends - Recession - Risks
“The world’s growth trends are sustainable, but fragile. We do not see high recession risks in major economies, nor do we expect a sharp rise in inflation. But we are respectful of late cycle dynamics and various serious political and long-term risks,” said James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse.
“Global manufacturing and trade have been in a slump since late 2018, but cyclical indicators are likely to improve in 2020. The rebound is unlikely to be vigorous.”
Economists - Downturn - Year - Forecast - Pick-up
While very few economists predicted a deeper downturn this year, not many more forecast a significant pick-up either, despite the euphoria surrounding the initial Washington-Beijing trade deal that cooled nearly two years of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.
“In the near-term, it has certainly removed some downside risks and given sentiment a little bit of a lift,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.
End - Business - Confidence
“In the end, we’re not expecting that to cause business confidence to roar back. We...
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