The Democratic Nomination (Where it Stands)

Eidos | 1/19/2020 | Staff
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The election is about Trump, the Democratic Nominee is a Choice Between Two Options

An advantage of being a Lincoln-Roosevelt-Reagan Republican is that I can always look at the battle for the Democratic notation fairly objectively. This next election will center around the incumbent. The economy is good and at peace (relative to the last twenty years).

Aggregate - Polls - Shows - Trump - Reach

An aggregate of polls shows that Trump is within reach of the poll numbers he needs to win, but he has (generally) stayed just below what he will need to win. My own calculus has been that Trump must move his disapproval numbers in polling aggregates (which eliminate polling bias) to under 52% to win.


Trump - Person - President - Percent - %

Trump has never been well liked. He was the least liked person to ever run for President, yet four percent or so of those who did not like him, voted for him. 48% of the vote would do it for the President. He is close, but short now, but he has no opponent to attack yet.

That will change. . .everything for that candidate and not in a good way. The President is the best counter-puncher in recent history.


Does it matter whom the Democrats nominate?

Only to a limited extent, because any Democrat will get (roughly) forty-seven percent of the vote against President Trump. That will not, quite do it, so which way to go?

Choice - Motivate - Youngling - Base - Core

The choice is: motivate the youngling base (left) or the core constituency (less white, more moderate, still liberal). Biden is not beloved of this group. Is anti-Trump animus enough to motivate needed volunteer work and turnout? On the other hand, the huge percentage of the Democratic base that is more moderate (particularly in the African-American community) may not turnout for an Elizabeth Warren.

Who is most immune to demonization? Who can counter-punch? Any Democratic candidate can win, but who...
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