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Three major signatories of the Iran Deal “served noticed” on Iran Tuesday, formally accusing the regime of violating the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While some believe this is the nail in the coffin of the Iran Deal, declaring the infamous deal dead already is far too hasty.
Now that this dispute mechanism has been triggered, those challenging Iran’s performance have sixty days to negotiate with Iran and bring the regime back into compliance with the deal. If the parties cannot come to an agreement, it is possible that United Nations sanctions previously imposed on Iran but suspended under the JCPOA may go back into effect.
Three–France - Germany - Dispute - Mechanism - Expectation
Even though the the big three–France, Germany, and Britain–triggered the dispute mechanism, any expectation that the deal is effectively sunk is premature, given Europe is still very much invested in salvaging the deal and explicitly so. In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, and UK emphasized that the dispute resolution was triggered “in good faith, with the overarching objective of preserving the JCPOA and in the sincere hope of finding a way forward through constructive diplomatic dialogue.”
Similarly, the ministers reaffirmed their opposition to President Trump’s partial withdrawal from the Iran Deal and assured that they would not be taking part in the “maximum pressure” approach of his administration. “Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance,” the trio stated in their statement. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated Tuesday he was looking forward to aiding the U.S. in coming to terms on some sort of “Trump Deal” to “replace” the JCPOA.
Scenario - Europeans - Exit - Deal - Move
In either scenario, the Europeans remain doe-eyed and unconvinced that an exit from the deal was a smart move for the United States and is a smart move for them, so much so that Johnson is already discussing...
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