ALEX BRUMMER: Consumers pin their hopes on Boris Johnson's Brexit deal

Mail Online | 10/17/2019 | Alex Brummer for the Daily Mail
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Sajid Javid's first visit to the International Monetary Fund as Chancellor could not be better timed.

By bringing with him details of Boris Johnson's draft Brexit agreement with Brussels, he lifts one of the darkest clouds that have been hovering over the Washington meetings and the threat to global output this year and next.

US - China - Trade - Deal - Halt

All that is needed now is for the US and China to say they have sealed their trade deal, bringing a halt to new tariffs, and blockages to confidence on the markets, business and consumers will have been lifted.

Javid's message is upbeat. Brexit will usher in a decade of renewal for the UK and the Government intends to take advantage of record low interest rates to support investment.

Combination - Business - Confidence - Commons - Johnson

The combination of the business confidence unleashed if the Commons approves the Johnson Brexit agreement and an expansion-focused budget next month has the capacity to transform the UK's modest growth prospects.

A deal also opens the path to the IMF going ahead with its delayed annual inspection of the British economy.

Officials - Point - 'Article - Analysis - State

Officials here decided that there was no point in doing their 'Article 4' detailed analysis of the state of the economy and finances until after October 31.

The Fund's previous work suggests a much more benign outcome from an agreed Brexit – with growth of 1.4 per cent next year – than a lurch into a No Deal unknown.

IMF - Report - Card - Budget - November

The IMF can be expected to deliver its report card well after the budget on November 6 and shortly before Christmas.

Ever since June 2016 we have heard nothing but gloom from the CBI, British Chambers of Commerce, car makers and other commercial groups.

Outcome - IMF - Inspection - Suspicion - Forecasters

Whatever the outcome of the IMF inspection, the suspicion must be that forecasters have greatly underestimated the psychological and confidence impact of the UK actually winning parliamentary approval for a Brexit...
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