BEIJING (Reuters) – China is expected to post its weakest economic growth in at least 27-1/2 years on Friday, raising pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to counter the effects of a costly trade war with the United States.
Downbeat data in recent months has highlighted weaker demand at home and abroad, fanning expectations that Beijing will need new measures to ward off a sharper slowdown that could drive job losses.
Analysts - Scope - Stimulus - Economy - Piles
Still, most analysts believe the scope for aggressive stimulus is limited in an economy already saddled with piles of debt following previous easing cycles, which have sent housing prices sharply higher.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.1% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 1992, the earliest quarterly data on record.
Loss - Momentum - Quarter - % - Pace
That would mark a further loss of momentum from the previous quarter’s 6.2% pace, with analysts expecting the 2019 full-year expansion to slow a near 30-year low of 6.2%.
“The economy still faces big downward pressure,” said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank in Shanghai.
Economy - Macro - Leverage - Ratio - Policy
“We should respond to pressure on the economy but also ensure the macro leverage ratio does not rise. So policy measures will be carried out with a focused and orderly way,” he said, referring to China’s overall debt level.
The government is targeting growth of 6-6.5% this year.
Outlook - Time - Tensions - Trade - War
The outlook is unlikely to change for the better any time soon even as tensions in the protracted trade war between Beijing and Washington have eased somewhat. U.S. President Donald Trump said last week the two sides had reached agreement on the first phase of a deal and suspended a tariff hike, but officials said much work still needed to be done.
A slide in China’s exports accelerated...
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