BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s election primary on Sunday will determine President Mauricio Macri’s chances of winning a second term in October, with the country’s embattled peso currency expected to take a fresh beating next week if the business-friendly leader fares worse than expected.
As the main political parties have already chosen their nominees, Sunday’s vote will serve as a grand opinion poll on Macri’s chances of beating the main challenger, Alberto Fernandez of the left-leaning Peronist party.
Question - Fernandez - Macri - Round - Election
The big question is whether Fernandez or Macri can win in the first round of the general election on Oct. 27. To avoid a second-round runoff in November, one candidate would have to clinch at least 45% of the October vote.
“The most important thing on Sunday is to see who passes 40% by the most votes. That’s the candidate most likely to get 45% in October and become president,” said Julio Burdman, a Buenos Aires-based pollster.
Opinion - Polls - Fernandez - Lead - Weakness
Opinion polls show Fernandez in the lead, which is not surprising given the weakness of Argentina’s economy under Macri.
As unhappy as they are about Argentina’s recession and high inflation, business leaders – and many well-to-do voters – say they are more concerned about a possible return to populism and intervention in the markets under the Peronists.
Argentines - Peso - Macri - Sunday - Primary
So rich Argentines may get nervous and ditch the peso if Macri performs poorly in Sunday’s primary.
“The potential panickers are middle- and upper-class Argentines, who will sell their pesos if it looks...
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