How Trump could lose by 5 million votes and still win in 2020

NBC News | 7/19/2019 | Staff
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In the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen "go back" to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.

But the cold reality for Democrats? The bulk of the nation's demographic transformation is taking place in states that matter the least in deciding the Electoral College.

Democrats - Nightmare - November - Hillary - Clinton

Democrats' worst nightmare came true in November 2016 when Hillary Clinton captured 2.9 million more votes than Donald Trump but he still comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College, 306 to 232. As much as they would like to purge that outcome from memory, Democrats would be unwise to write it off as a fluke: In 2020, it's possible Trump could win 5 million fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term.

The nation's two most populous states, California and Texas, are at the heart of Democrats' geography problem.

Behemoths - Diverse - Rate - Nation - Latino

Both behemoths are growing more diverse at a much faster rate than the nation — owing to booming Asian and Latino populations — and are trending toward Democrats. Yet neither blue California nor red Texas would play a pivotal role in a close 2020 election, potentially rendering millions of additional Democratic votes useless.

Over the past four years for which census estimates are available, California's population of nonwhite voting-age citizens has exploded by 1,585,499, while its number of white voting-age citizens has declined by a net 162,715. The Golden State's GOP is in free fall: In May 2018, the state's Republican registrants fell to third place behind "no party preference" voters for the first time. In 2016, Clinton stretched Barack Obama's 2012 margin from 3 million to 4.2 million votes. But padding that margin by another 1.2...
(Excerpt) Read more at: NBC News
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