China Reports Slowest GDP Growth On Record, As Retail Sales, Industrial Output And Fixed Investment All Beat

Zero Hedge | 7/14/2019 | Staff
chrismpotts (Posted by) Level 3
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Additionally, 2Q cumulative GDP rose 6.3% y/y, also matching the consensus estimate, and down from 6.4% in Q1.

"We expect Beijing to ramp up stimulus measures in the second half despite more limited policy room, though markets should not put too high expectations on the scale and duration of these stimulus measures,” Nomura's China economist Lu Ting wrote in a recent research note. “Domestic policies will to a large extent be dependent on the U.S.-China trade tensions.”

GDP - Print - Day - Miss - Time

The disappointing GDP print comes just day after another miss, this time in the value of exports, which sharnk by 1.3% in dollar terms in June, after inching up in May despite the tensions with the US.

Property investment moderated to 10.9 per cent in the first six months, compared with growth of 11.2 per cent in the year to May. Strong property sales helped brighten the economy into April, but the sector lost momentum in the second quarter.

Record - Chinese - Slowdown - Silver - Lining

But while the record Chinese slowdown was widely as expected, there was an unexpected silver lining to the lowest Chinese GDP print on record, as all three core June economic indicators - retail sales, industrial output and fixed investment - beat sharply lowered expectations, to wit:

And visually:

Fact - Sales - Growth - % - June

The fact that retail sales growth strengthened to 9.8% in June from 8.6% a month earlier, is an encouraging sign that domestic consumption has remained robust (that, or Beijing is now grossly manipulating every economic datapoint). Retail sales remained strong throughout the second quarter,...
(Excerpt) Read more at: Zero Hedge
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