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English schools will need to find almost 420,000 extra school places over the next decade, due in part to a baby boom among migrant mothers.
The Department for Education has reported that, while its latest projections suggest that “Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK has a very small effect on the school age population” compared to the birth rate, the birth rate “is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women (who overall tend to have higher fertility rates).”
Document - Methodology - Figures - Changes - Population
A document explaining underlying methodology of the new figures explain that “Changes in the population who are of school age is largely driven by an increase in the birth rate rather than direct immigration,” for the most part, but “that birth rate is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women (compared to those born to non UK-born women).”
“The number of children born to non-UK born women increased by around 75 per cent between 2002 and 2013 (the years in which many children currently in schools were born),” the Government document adds — although it appears to make some effort to...
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