LONDON (Reuters) – Sterling would rally substantially if Britain leaves the European Union with a deal but weaken further if no such accord is reached, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
After suffering its biggest loss against the euro in two years in May – and also losing ground against the dollar – the pound coasted through June as markets awaited the outcome of a Conservative Party leadership battle to become Britain’s new prime minister.
Britain - EU - Results - Race - Leader
It is still not clear how, when, or even if Britain will leave the EU, and the results of the two-horse race to become leader due on July 23 could steer that eventual outcome.
Former London Mayor Boris Johnson, the face of the official 2016 campaign to leave the EU, is expected to beat Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt to the job.
Johnson - Stance - Brexit - Britain - EU
Johnson has a more hardline stance on Brexit and has said Britain must leave the EU on Oct. 31 “deal or no deal”.
If it’s no deal then one pound, worth around $1.26 on Thursday, will only get you between $1.17 and $1.25 in the month after the two sides part ways, according to the median estimate in the July 1-4 poll of currency strategists.
Worries - Shock - Result - Referendum - Waves
“If we do leave with a ‘no-deal’ then economic worries would escalate. There wouldn’t be the huge shock that the result of the referendum was, but it would obviously cause huge waves in the market,” said Tony Nyman at Informa Global Markets.
But if Britain leaves with...
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