Researchers provide new evidence on the reliability of climate modeling

phys.org | 3/9/2015 | Staff
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For decades, scientists studying a key climate phenomenon have been grappling with contradictory data that have threated to undermine confidence in the reliability of climate models overall. A new study, published today in Nature Geoscience, settles that debate with regard to the tropical atmospheric circulation.

The Hadley circulation, or Hadley cell—a worldwide tropical atmospheric circulation pattern that occurs due to uneven solar heating at different latitudes surrounding the equator—causes air around the equator to rise to about 10-15 kilometers, flow poleward (toward the North Pole above the equator, the South Pole below the equator), descend in the subtropics, and then flow back to the equator along the Earth's surface. This circulation is widely studied by climate scientists because it controls precipitation in the subtropics and also creates a region called the intertropical convergence zone, producing a band of major, highly-precipitative storms.

Study - Rei - Chemke - Columbia - Engineering

The study, headed by Rei Chemke, a Columbia Engineering postdoctoral research fellow, together with climate scientist Lorenzo Polvani, addresses a major discrepancy between climate models and reanalyses regarding potential strengthening or weakening of the Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions.

Historically, climate models have shown a progressive weakening of the Hadley cell in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the past four decades reanalyses, which combine models with observational and satellite data, have shown just the opposite—a strengthening of the Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Reanalyses provide the best approximation for the state of the atmosphere for scientists and are widely used to ensure that model simulations are functioning properly.

Difference - Trends - Models - Problem - Hadley

The difference in trends between models and reanalyses poses a problem that goes far beyond whether the Hadley cell is going to weaken or strengthen; the inconsistency itself is a major concern for scientists. Reanalyses are used to validate the reliability of climate models—if the two disagree, that...
(Excerpt) Read more at: phys.org
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