The Democrats' 100-year flood

Axios | 5/22/2019 | Alexi McCammond
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He's driving turnout among those most unhappy with him (younger voters and people of color) even when he's not on the ballot.

And Trump voters aren't a growing demographic group. The share of whites with less than a 4-year degree — Trump's constituency — dropped by 3% from 2014 to 2018.

Lines - McDonald - Prediction - Storm - Midterms

Between the lines: McDonald is basing his prediction of "a hundred-year storm" on the 2018 midterms, which had the highest off-year election turnout in more than a century (50%). He says that momentum will only get stronger.

Prior to 2018, turnout rates for midterms since 1974 had been languishing around 40% to 41%.

Candidates - Competition - Turnout - States - Increase

"It doesn't seem to be the candidates who were running in 2018; there wasn't hyper competition driving turnout; some states made it easier to vote, but that can't explain it because the increase was happening in every state," McDonald said. "So the only explanation is Donald Trump because he’s the only major factor that’s changed in our politics since 2014."

Turnout in the 2016 presidential election was 60%.

Prediction - Politics - Turnout - Larry - Sabato

"The safest prediction in politics is for a giant turnout in 2020," said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "Nobody's going to believe the polls after 2016, and everyone will assume a tight race."

"Anti-Trump Democrats and the pro-Trump base will both set human adrenaline records — the intensity across the country is going to be spectacular. Let's hope the polling places can accommodate the crowds."

Kind - Increase

With that kind of increase, turnout...
(Excerpt) Read more at: Axios
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