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Many climate scientists are skeptical of the extreme warming predicted by next-generation climate models.
At least eight climate models developed by scientific institutions predict extreme long-term warming.
Scientists - Improvements - Climate - Models
However, scientists questioned whether or not the improvements made to the newest climate models actually made them less accurate.
Early runs of some next-generation climate models to be included in the next United Nations report predict way more warming than their predecessors.
Modelers - Scientists - Estimates - Models
While modelers are trying to understand exactly why this happened, many scientists are skeptical there’s enough estimates to justify the new warmed-up models.
“These new climate model runs are basically gifts to skeptics, since they clearly reduce the credibility of the climate models for attributions of recent warming and also for 21st century projections,” climate scientist Judith Curry told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
Models - Estimates - Climate - Sensitivity - Climate
So far, at least eight of the 15 models have extremely high estimates of climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity refers to the long-term warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Hoesung Lee, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses at the COP24 U.N. Climate Change Conference 2018 in Katowice, Poland December 11, 2018. Agencja Gazeta/Grzegorz Celejewski via REUTERS.
Climate - Sensitivity - Measure - Results - Scientists
A higher climate sensitivity measure will yield more alarming results, but not all scientists are convinced there’s enough evidence for high climate sensitivity estimates.
Curry said models with climate sensitivity above 4 degrees Celsius don’t do a good job of replicating past temperatures. For example, early runs of the U.S. Energy Department’s climate model, called E3SM, doesn’t capture the current warming trend very well.
E3SM - Climate - Sensitivity - Degrees - Celsius
The latest E3SM runs peg climate sensitivity at 5.3 degrees Celsius. That’s well outside the range of what the IPCC considers to be likely — which is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius.
The U.K. Met Office’s two new models both put climate sensitivity well above 5 degrees...
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