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Ocean CO2 uptake is predictable for two years in advance, according to new paper in Science Advances by Dr. Hongmei Li, Dr. Tatiana Ilyina, Dr. Wolfgang A. Müller, and Dr. Peter Landschützer, all scientists in the department "The Ocean in the Earth System" at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M).
As revealed by observation-based studies, the ocean carbon sink showed strong variations in the last three decades that are attributable to climate variability. Dr. Hongmei Li says: "Yet as of now, Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture these strong vacillations. This raises much concern, since the strength of the ocean carbon sink together with the land carbon sink determines the fraction of anthropogenic emissions remaining in the atmosphere, and hence modulates climate change."
Dr - Wolfgang - A - Müller - Shares
Dr. Wolfgang A. Müller shares his expertise on the decadal predictions of the physical world: "ESM-based predictions initialized by observations have proven as skillful in predicting variability of some ocean variables such as sea surface temperature or Atlantic meridional overturning circulation." This leads to an extension of predictions to the Earth system: Can such decadal prediction systems also reproduce observed variations of the ocean carbon sink and predict them? If yes, what...
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