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Guess which country’s preeminent social sciences think tank wrote in a recent report: “The era of negative population growth is coming soon”. That “soon” is a tell, because this is not from researchers in Japan, Italy, Portugal or Greece. All those countries already show negative population growth.
The country in question is China. Using expected future fertility rates from the United Nations (which must comport with their own analysis, or they would have used their own numbers), the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences reported that:
Population - People - Decade
The Chinese population will peak at 1.442 billion people a decade from now in 2029.
From 2030 on, the population base will shrink by 0.3% annually until 2050, at which point it will be 1.364 billion.
Trend - Population - Country - Levels
The trend to a smaller Chinese population will extend to at least 2065, at which point the country will be back to levels last seen in 1996 (1.248 billion).
All this assumes fertility rates increase from the current 1.6 children per woman to 1.77 by the end of the forecast horizon. The researchers note that if fertility rates remain constant, China’s population will decrease to 1.172 billion people by 2065, the same as it was in 1990.
Link - Report - End - Section - Google
Link to the report at the end of this section. Google Translate works well here.
All this stands in stark contrast to United Nations projections for many regions of the world (2000 – 2050):
Europe - Population - Declines - Basis - -0
Only Europe is expected to show population declines on a regional basis, at -0.3%.
China’s “one child” policy, which ran from 1979 – 2015, is one cause of the country’s current demographic challenge. After it was changed to a “two child policy” in 2016, fertility rates did pick up for a year but declined again in 2017 and 2018. Demographers use 2.1 children/woman as a “replacement rate” for the existing population. In 2018, China’s fertility rate was...
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