JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand will lose half of the 7 percent gains made against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year over the next 12 months, pressured by fiscal constraints and weak growth, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday.
The rand has topped emerging market currencies since the turn of the year, buoyed by external developments such as a potentially more “patient” Federal Reserve in raising interest rates and a revitalized mood in U.S.-China trade talks.
Months - Rand - Percent - Dollar - Forecast
However, in 12 months the rand is expected to have weakened over 3 percent to 13.85 per dollar although that median forecast is 58 cents stronger than last month’s.
“There are still notable local risks aligned to subdued growth and fiscal challenges that warrant caution,” said Christopher Shiells, emerging markets analyst at Informa Global Markets.
October - Budget - Review - South - Africa
In October’s budget review, South Africa’s finance minister Tito Mboweni predicted wider budget deficits and cut growth forecasts that focused spending on infrastructure, manufacturing and agriculture to boost the weak economy.
“These challenges may lead to a sovereign credit rating downgrade from Moody’s in March if the 2019 budget does not allay any lingering concerns,” Shiells said.
Budget - Weeks
The budget is due to be announced in about two weeks, followed by...
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