Researchers under-predicted a slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

phys.org | 11/29/2018 | Staff
samtetley (Posted by) Level 3
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The 2018 hurricane season ended up slightly above average – more active than was predicted by the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project forecast team's later updates issued in June, July and August. Of most note during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season were Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which brought death and destruction to the Carolinas and Florida Panhandle and other parts of the southeastern United States, respectively.

"The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was above-average for numbers of named storms and hurricanes, and near-normal for the number of major (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) hurricanes. Overall, our first seasonal forecast issued in early April verified quite well, while updates issued in June, July and August underestimated Atlantic hurricane activity," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast. Seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was approximately 140 percent of the 1981-2010 median. Much of the activity that occurred during the season occurred outside of the tropics. Six of the 15 named storms that formed in 2018 were initially classified as sub-tropical.

Report - Cyclone - Activity - Atlantic - Basin

The report summarizes all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2018 hurricane season and compares the team's seasonal and two-week forecasts to what occurred.

The season was more active than would have been expected given large-scale climate factors that were present. While El Niño did not develop, vertical wind shear in the Caribbean was much stronger than normal. Typically, when vertical wind shear is above normal in the Caribbean, it tends to inhibit formation of hurricanes throughout the tropical Atlantic. In 2018, the Caribbean was very quiet for hurricane activity, but the eastern and central tropical Atlantic were quite active.

Atlantic - Peak - Hurricane - Season - Sea

The tropical Atlantic was cooler than normal during the peak of the hurricane season. Anomalously cool sea surface temperatures tend to inhibit Atlantic hurricane formation through several mechanisms. Cool sea surface temperatures provide less...
(Excerpt) Read more at: phys.org
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