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With two weeks to go until the midterms, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win the Senate. As of today, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Arizona, and Missouri appear safe. Just today, the third consecutive poll showing Dean Heller up in Nevada came out (Emerson) and he has expanded his lead now to seven.
This would mean that as of today, the GOP would gain a net of two seats in the Senate. Races still supposedly up in the air are Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Ohio. Races where the Democrat has a lead outside the margin of error are Wisconsin and Michigan.
Belief - Republican - Pattern - Election - Day
It remains my belief that most of these will continue trending Republican as the other five have. This is a pattern. I full expect by election day Montana, Florida, and Indiana will be safe; that Minnesota (Houseley’s race), West Virginia, and Ohio will be nail biters and all three could easily flip to Republicans.
When the dust settles I think the Republicans will gain a net of four to seven seats, but very possibly we will end up with a net gain of eight or even nine. The trends are just that strong.
Insider - Virginia - Tim - Kaine - Boots
I’m hearing from an insider in Virginia that even Tim Kaine is ruffled and is scurrying to bolster his late-campaign “boots on the ground” effort. That’s telling.
We continue to see the “Trump Effect” of about 4-5 points in a race, and almost certainly in his last week of campaigning he’ll hit Ohio, probably Arizona (although Kyrsten Sinema’s gaffe-a-minute campaign may make this unnecessary in a week), West Virginia, and, possibly, New Jersey and West Virginia.
Democrats - Chance—none—to - Senate
No, the Democrats have no chance—none—to take the Senate.
As for the House, you know Republicans are in the driver’s seat when you start to see articles appearing in the fake news media...
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