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Through propagation models, scientists capture potential behavior of wildfires as they spread and grow; such models are routinely used by emergency managers to help prepare for forest fire season. However, less is empirically known about the behavior of such fires as they cross into housing developments and other human-populated areas.
Disaster-mitigation experts in Colorado State University's Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering wanted to bring attention to the complexity of the so-called wildland-urban interface of fires. They've developed a model that attempts to quantify the vulnerability of a community of homes to the spread of a fire. They hope their model could add to the strategic toolbox that protects lives and livelihoods from destructive fires.
Model - Researchers - AGNI-NAR - Graph - Nexus
The model the researchers are calling AGNI-NAR -- Asynchronous Graph Nexus Infrastructure for Network Assessment of Wildland-Urban Interface Risk -- was developed by Hussam Mahmoud, associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, and Akshat Chulahwat, a graduate student in civil engineering. Their work is published in the open-access journal Scientific Reports.
"Our ultimate motivation is to highlight new strategies to mitigate potential risk for wildland-urban interface fires, which has historically been a one-size-fits-all approach," Mahmoud said. "Our model clearly shows us that this is absolutely not sufficient."
Model - Methods - Graph - Theory - Networks
To develop the model, they relied on tried-and-true methods based in graph theory, which has been used to model complex networks such as transportation zones or disease transmission. The researchers reasoned that they could apply similar principles to...
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